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NM

NEUROONE MEDICAL TECHNOLOGIES Corp (NMTC)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Preliminary fiscal Q4 2025 set up appears constructive: implied product revenue of ~$2.74M derived from FY 2025 preliminary $9.1M and 9M FY2025 product revenue of $6.36M, likely a top-line beat vs consensus $2.47M; full Q4 financials to be announced in December . Q4 EPS actual not yet reported; consensus is -$0.04* .
  • Management maintained FY2025 product revenue guidance of $8–$10M and raised FY2025 product gross margin guidance to 50–53%, reflecting operating leverage and cost actions .
  • Operational momentum: first OneRF patient reached one-year seizure freedom; expanded customer interest cited for revenue growth; Zimmer Biomet distribution continues to underpin commercialization .
  • Liquidity: cash and equivalents ~$6.6M at 9/30/25; company reiterates funded through at least FY2026 based on Zimmer minimums and April raise .
  • Near-term catalysts: FDA 510(k) response for OneRF Trigeminal Nerve Ablation, continued OneRF adoption, and potential incremental evidence via post-market registry .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record annual product revenue preliminary $9.1M (+163% YoY) and continued margin expansion; CEO: “Our 2025 revenue growth was driven by expanded customer interest and positive outcomes with the OneRF Ablation system…” .
  • Clinical validation and commercialization footing improving: first OneRF patient reached one-year seizure freedom; planning post-market registry to collect outcomes; Zimmer Biomet exhibiting and training support .
  • Strengthened financial position and runway: oversubscribed $8.2M capital raise; CFO and CEO reiterated funded through at least FY2026 based on Zimmer minimum orders .

What Went Wrong

  • Lack of complete Q4 financials until December limits precision on EPS, Opex, and margin trajectory in the quarter; only preliminary FY totals provided .
  • Company remains loss-making despite improvements: Q3 net loss was $1.5M (vs $2.8M YoY) and nine-month net loss was $2.0M; need sustained volume and margin to reach breakeven .
  • Execution and regulatory risks remain: management highlights dependence on partner orders, regulatory outcomes (e.g., trigeminal 510(k)), and reimbursement/market adoption risks in forward-looking statements .

Financial Results

Headline Quarterly Metrics vs Prior Periods

MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025 (Prelim)
Product Revenue ($USD)$1,386,550 $1,696,050 ~$2,743,233 (derived from FY prelim $9.1M less 9M $6.3568M)
EPS (Basic & Diluted, $USD)$(0.07) $(0.03) NR (full Q4 results expected Dec.)
Product Gross Margin %55.6% 53.9% NR (FY guidance 50–53%)
Total Operating Expenses ($USD)$3,451,077 $2,801,435 NR (Dec. release)
Net Loss ($USD)$(2,270,607) $(1,500,868) NR (Dec. release)

Note: Q4 product revenue is implied from FY2025 preliminary product revenue ($9.1M) and 9M FY2025 product revenue ($6.3568M). Preliminary figures are subject to change when full financials are released .

Q4 vs Wall Street Consensus

MetricQ4 2025 Preliminary/ActualQ4 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($USD)~$2.74M (derived, prelim) $2.47M*
EPS ($USD)NR -$0.04*

Values retrieved from S&P Global. Consensus figures marked with *.

Observations: Preliminary implied revenue suggests a potential beat vs consensus; EPS comparison awaits December results .

Revenue Composition by Quarter

Revenue TypeQ2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025 (Prelim)
Product Revenue ($USD)$1,386,550 $1,696,050 ~$2,743,233 (derived, prelim)
License Revenue ($USD)$0 $0 (nine-month license was recognized earlier) NR

Note: License revenue of $3.0M was recognized within first nine months FY2025 (not included in product revenue) .

KPIs

KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025 (Prelim)
Cash and Equivalents ($USD)$1,320,251 $8,039,683 ~$6,600,000
Working Capital ($USD)$2,000,000 $8,700,000 NR
Debt Outstanding$0 $0 $0 (no change indicated)
Product Gross Margin %55.6% 53.9% NR (FY guidance 50–53%)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Product RevenueFY2025$8.0–$10.0M $8.0–$10.0M Maintained
Product Gross Margin %FY202547%–51% 50%–53% Raised
Cash RunwayCorporateFunded through at least FY2026 Funded through at least FY2026 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2025)Previous Mentions (Q3 2025)Current Period (Q4 2025)Trend
OneRF Ablation adoption & patient outcomesMajority of treated patients seizure-free; one patient approaching one-year; reduced hospitalizations First patient reached one-year seizure freedom; planning outcomes registry “Expanded customer interest and positive outcomes” cited in FY prelim release Strengthening
Trigeminal Nerve Ablation (TNA) 510(k)Filed ahead of schedule; potential late-2025 revenue Expecting FDA response in near term No new updates beyond prelim release; pending FDA response Ongoing regulatory
sEEG-based Drug DeliveryIn development; conference presentations; partner discussions First order from large biotech to test platform No incremental disclosures in Oct prelim release Progressing
Spinal Cord Stimulation & BVNAFinalized chronic animal study protocol; partner discussions Initiated chronic animal study; advisors formed for BVNA No incremental disclosures in Oct prelim release Progressing slowly
International Expansion (ISO 13485)Initiating process Initiated program for certification No incremental disclosures in Oct prelim release Ongoing
Zimmer Biomet PartnershipExpanded distribution; $3M license; cornerstone for commercialization Continued collaboration and training support Distribution remains central narrative Stable
Macro/supply chain/regulatory riskRisks outlined in forward-looking disclaimers Risks reiterated Risks reiterated Unchanged

Management Commentary

  • “Our 2025 revenue growth was driven by expanded customer interest and positive outcomes with the OneRF Ablation system for patients suffering with seizures associated with epilepsy… We believe we are well positioned to expand use of the OneRF technology platform.” — Dave Rosa, CEO (press release) .
  • “We are reiterating our fiscal year 2025 guidance and expect product revenue to be in the range of $8,000,000 to $10,000,000… and we are also increasing our product gross margin expectations to be between 50–53% versus our previous guidance of 47–51%.” — Dave Rosa (Q3 call) .
  • “Product revenue increased 105% to $1,700,000… product gross margins increased to 53.9%… We also remain debt free and reiterate our expectations of being funded through at least fiscal year 2026…” — Dave Rosa (Q3 call prepared remarks) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Market sizing and clinical focus for Trigeminal Neuralgia: Management estimates ~150,000 US patients; procedures performed by same neurosurgeons as brain ablation; strategy to expand usage within existing OneRF centers .
  • Drug delivery timeline: Initial bench testing progressing to animal models; future clinical trials contemplated pending successful preclinical results .
  • Spinal interventions: Lower back pain targets (L3–S1); product still in development with multiple components; larger electrode footprint aims broader coverage .
  • 2026 outlook: Management declined to provide FY2026 forecast; reiterated confidence anchored in Zimmer minimum orders .
  • Guidance clarifications: FY2025 revenue guide excludes the $3.0M license revenue recognized earlier; majority of revenue expected via Zimmer .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 2025 consensus: Revenue $2.47M*, EPS -$0.04*; EBITDA consensus unavailable*. Target Price consensus $2.225*; Consensus recommendation not available*. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications: Preliminary implied Q4 product revenue (~$2.74M) suggests a potential top-line beat vs consensus, while EPS comparison awaits the December release .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue momentum and margin expansion are intact; implied Q4 product revenue points to a likely beat vs consensus, reinforcing the OneRF adoption narrative .
  • Guidance quality improved with margin range raised to 50–53%; watch December results for confirmation and potential FY2026 commentary .
  • Clinical evidence strengthening (one-year seizure freedom) and registry plans should support commercial uptake and reimbursement dialogues .
  • Liquidity adequate with ~$6.6M cash at FY-end and no debt; runway through at least FY2026 supported by Zimmer minimum order commitments .
  • Regulatory catalysts near term (trigeminal 510(k) response) could expand TAM and diversify revenue; monitor FDA timelines closely .
  • Partner leverage remains core (Zimmer), but incremental partnerships (drug delivery, spine) can unlock optionality; execution and regulatory risks in these programs persist .
  • Trading lens: Into December, set up favors topline surprise if preliminary revenue holds; EPS and margin details are the swing factors for the stock’s reaction. Consider positioning around FDA outcomes and December print given narrative strength and raised margin guidance .